Table 2. Total, Direct, and Indirect Effects of Family History on Incident CHD With Metabolic Mediators, Adjusted for Age at Baseline, Sex, and Smoking Status
EffectsFamily History (Yes vs No)
Hazard Ratio (95% CI)Proportion Explained (%) (95% CI)aAdditional Incident CHD Cases Per 100 000 Person‐Years at Riskb
Total effect1.52 (1.39–1.65)100.0%269.7
Direct effectc1.40 (1.28–1.52)80.0% (73.6–85.2%)220.2
Indirect effect, combined1.09 (1.07–1.11)20.0% (14.8–26.4%)52.5
Indirect effect, through systolic blood pressure and hypertension treatment1.04 (1.03–1.05)8.5% (5.9–12.0%)23.5
Indirect effect, through apoA‐I1.01 (1.00–1.01)1.7% (0.2–3.4%)5.1
Indirect effect, through apoB1.04 (1.03–1.05)8.3% (5.8–11.7%)19.8
Indirect effect, through diabetes mellitus1.01 (1.00–1.02)1.5% (−0.8% to 3.8%)4.1
  • apoA‐I indicates apolipoprotein A‐I; apoB, apolipoprotein B; CHD, coronary heart disease.

  • a On ln(HR) scale.

  • b Estimates from additive hazards models with time‐independent effects.

  • c Effect of family history not mediated by the 4 analyzed risk factors.