Table 4. Performance of Models for All‐Cause Mortality, Cardiovascular Mortality, and MACE at 5 Years
Performance MeasuresAll‐Cause MortalityCardiovascular MortalityMACE
Clinical ModelClinical Model Plus log2‐NT‐IGFBP‐4Clinical Model Plus log2‐CT‐IGFBP‐4Clinical ModelClinical Model Plus log2‐NT‐IGFBP‐4Clinical Model Plus log2‐CT‐IGFBP‐4Clinical ModelClinical Model Plus log2‐NT‐IGFBP‐4Clinical Model Plus log2‐CT‐IGFBP‐4
Discrimination
C‐statistic (95% CI) 0.761 (0.720–0.801)
Reference
0.780 (0.742–0.818)
P=0.026
0.778 (0.740–0.816)
P=0.043
0.813 (0.765–0.861)
Reference
0.843 (0.799–0.887)
P=0.025
0.841 (0.794–0.887)
P=0.038
0.704 (0.664–0.745)
Reference
0.728 (0.688–0.767)
P=0.018
0.726 (0.687–0.765)
P=0.028
Calibration
Overall performance
Nagelkerke's R20.4700.5260.5170.6670.7230.7210.2870.3500.347
Goodness of fit
H‐L test (χ2) 10.86
P=0.301
5.35
P=0.803
4.29
P=0.886
4.53
P=0.874
3.46
P=0.943
13.2
P=0.154
14.2
P=0.115
8.30
P=0.504
4.76
P=0.850
AIC162716091612799785786202520052006
BIC169516801684866857858209220772078
Likelihood ratioReferenceP<0.001P<0.001ReferenceP<0.001P<0.001ReferenceP<0.001P<0.001
Reclassification
Category NRI (95% CI)
EventReference0.022 (−0.051 to 0.083)−0.037 (−0.060 to 0.077)Reference0.188 (−0.031 to 0.193)0.145 (−0.030 to 0.238)Reference0.030 (−0.053 to 0.067)0.018 (−0.057 to 0.063)
NoneventReference0.113 (0.025–0.188)0.081 (−0.009 to 0.166)Reference0.095 (0.016–0.126)0.085 (0.010–0.119)Reference0.094 (0.021–0.206)0.122 (0.019–0.205)
AllReference0.136 (0.004–0.248)0.044 (−0.009 to 0.220)Reference0.284 (0.005–0.296)0.230 (0.003–0.328)Reference0.124 (0.003–0.239)0.141 (−0.007 to 0.238)
Continuous NRI (95% CI)
EventReference0.162 (0.064–0.348)0.250 (0.075–0.369)Reference0.159 (0.013–0.406)0.217 (0.070–0.457)Reference0.145 (0.023–0.295)0.181 (0.065–0.305)
NoneventReference0.196 (0.100–0.326)0.150 (0.042–0.269)Reference0.179 (0.047–0.346)0.182 (0.056–0.373)Reference0.176 (0.086–0.283)0.143 (0.045–0.237)
AllReference0.358 (0.197–0.645)0.400 (0.145–0.610)Reference0.338 (0.111–0.706)0.400 (0.168–0.765)Reference0.320 (0.137–0.547)0.324 (0.129–0.512)
IDI (95% CI)
EventReference0.025 (0.009–0.055)0.022 (0.005–0.050)Reference0.027 (0.003–0.069)0.030 (0.007–0.071)Reference0.022 (0.007–0.048)0.020 (0.006–0.044)
NoneventReference0.007 (0.002–0.015)0.005 (0.001–0.013)Reference0.002 (0.000–0.008)0.003 (0.001–0.009)Reference0.006 (0.002–0.016)0.007 (0.002–0.015)
AllReference0.033 (0.011–0.071)0.027 (0.006–0.063)Reference0.029 (0.004–0.077)0.033 (0.008–0.079)Reference0.028 (0.009–0.063)0.027 (0.008–0.059)
  • A clinical model was generated based on variables selected for model 1 (age, sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate, hypertension, high‐density lipoprotein, total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, hemoglobin, current smoking, diabetes, previous acute myocardial infarction, multivessel coronary artery disease, complex lesion, C‐reactive protein, and peak troponin I). The baseline model was then extended by the log2‐transformed NT‐ or CT‐IGFBP‐4 variable. For category NRI, patients were divided into risk categories (<5%, 5–10%, 10–20%, and >20%) and reclassified. AIC indicates Akaike information criterion; BIC, Bayesian information criterion; CT, C‐terminal; H‐L, Hosmer–Lemeshow; IDI, integrated discrimination improvement; IGFBP‐4, insulin‐like growth factor binding protein 4; MACE, major adverse cardiac event; NRI, net reclassification improvement; NT, N‐terminal.